Chief Executives’ Confidence at Seven-Year Low
The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence, which had declined to 44 in the third quarter of 2007, fell to 39 in the final quarter of 2007 (a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses). The last time the Measure fell below 40 was in the final quarter of 2000 when it fell to 31.
“CEOs’ confidence in the state of the U.S. economy continues to wither and is now at a seven-year low,” says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. “Given continued trouble in the housing and credit markets, persistent volatility in financial markets and increases in energy prices, it’s not surprising that confidence has eroded. Looking ahead, the majority of business leaders expect these lackluster economic conditions to prevail throughout the first half of 2008.”
CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions was considerably less positive, with just seven percent of CEOs – down from 14 percent last quarter – stating economic conditions had improved. In assessing their own industries, business leaders were also less optimistic. Approximately 15 percent claim conditions are better, down from approximately 17 percent in the third quarter.
Looking ahead six months, the outlook has turned more negative. Currently, 16 percent of business leaders expect economic conditions to improve in the next six months, down from 20 percent last quarter. Expectations for their own industries are also less upbeat, with only 17 percent anticipating an improvement, down from 27 percent last quarter.
Inflation Outlook: Modest Price Increases Expected
The majority of chief executives expect changes in their firms’ selling prices in 2008, with just 9 percent anticipating price increases in excess of 10 percent. On average, firms plan to hike prices by 3.2 percent, slightly lower than last year’s expectation of 3.3 percent. Some 13 percent plan decreases and 4 percent foresee no change.
Non-partisan and not-for-profit, The Conference Board is one of the world’s leading business membership and research organizations. The Conference Board produces the Consumer Confidence Index and the Leading Economic Indicators for the U.S. and other major nations. Visit The Conference Board website at www.conference-board.org.
Source: CEO Confidence 4th Quarter 2007--The Conference Board